APRIL 18, 2003

CHINA JOURNAL
By Mark Clifford

Sure, SARS is a dangerous virus. I'm not panicked, but as a Hong Kong resident, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't seriously concerned about this disease. It's a bug that moves and kills in mysterious ways. However, the question has unquestionably been out of proportion to the damage SARS has caused. Now that authorities in many places are keeping a close watch on air travelers, its spread should slow.

So why all the fear? Is it just a sensationalist media provoking mass hysteria that Asia has brought about Armageddon? I think not. No one wants to talk about what's really behind the fear: China. SARS has laid bare some ugly truths about a country that the world desperately wants to see succeed.

NEW WORLD, OLD ATTITUDES. No question, China has changed almost beyond imagination in the past quarter century. Its modern skyscrapers, spotless factories, and increasingly international, well-educated people represent a turnaround from the dour days of Mao Zedong. But the changes have been in economics and in society. The attitudes of China's overweening government officials haven't changed.

Most of the time, this imperious demeanor doesn't matter. Sure, it's a hassle for everyone, from academics to businessmen, when they bump into the hard edges of the Chinese state. And for dissidents, the downtrodden, or anyone who gets on the wrong side of the state, the experience can be more than a minor hassle. But as the private sector has expanded, the importance of this old-fashioned government structure mattered less and less. Or so it seemed.

I'm sorry to say that businesspeople encouraged this. All too many said China couldn't afford democracy just now. They said China would become democratic someday, decades from now, as if democracy were a light switch that could simply be turned on -- or off -- when it suited authorities. And China apologists said democracy didn't matter to business -- or to Chinese -- anyway. Democracy was one of those Western luxuries China could do without. It got in the way of development by introducing inefficiencies.

CREDIBILITY CRISIS.Overseas Chinese entrepreneurs who returned home to do business were particularly vocal in saying that Westerners just didn't understand Asia. (It made me wonder what they knew of Asia -- and of the struggles of people in South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and even their Chinese compatriots in Taiwan for more open, responsive governments.) Businesspeople eager for a slice of one of the world's fastest-growing economies could ignore what was happening.

Now, everyone can see that democracy isn't just a luxury. They can see that authoritarianism doesn't even guarantee stability. A government that represses information not only kills its people -- and those of other countries -- but it spreads panic and disbelief as its credibility erodes.

Maybe most Chinese still believe their government. I can't speak for them. But I do know that the ham-handed response to SARS has caused many people around the world, especially in the public-health and emergency-management fields, to rethink China. They're wondering just how far it has come in the quarter century since Deng Xiaoping kick-started the reform process. They realize that after nearly 14 years of breathtaking economic and social changes since the 1989 Tiananmen Square killings, politics in the Middle Kingdom has hardly changed at all. They see that China has no transformation strategy when it comes to its political development.

CHINA'S CHERNOBYL? And, above all, they're scared that this political backwardness will hurt them. So they've decided that China is guilty until proven innocent. This may not be fair. But if China wants the situation to change, it needs to learn the lessons of crisis management. Lesson No. 1 is that modern states in the 21st century must be open and transparent. If you don't know, say so. The only way to restore credibility is to convince people you have nothing to hide.

China scholar Richard Baum says SARS may end up as China's Chernobyl. When that nuclear disaster first occurred, the Soviet authorities tried to hush it up. But as clouds of radioactive gas swept over Europe, pressure mounted for the truth. Eventually, Mikhail Gorbachev saw that the future of the hidebound Soviet Union would be dismal if changes weren't made. He started the political process of glasnost that opened up Soviet society.

Baum isn't predicting that China will follow the same path as Russia. Neither am I. But I do know that the importance of SARS goes far beyond the human or the economic toll that the disease has taken.

Clifford is Hong Kong bureau chief for BusinessWeek.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/apr2003/nf20030418_4543.htm