"Miracles" and "Mysteries" in China's SARS Statistics

By Huang Ye

(Clearwisdom.net)

Let's begin by looking at the epidemic area of Hong Kong. Within the two weeks from May 31 to June 13, 19 new cases and 19 deaths were reported in Hong Kong, with an average of 1.3 new cases and 1.3 deaths per day. Up to June 13, the cumulative totals in Hong Kong added up to 1755 cases, 293 deaths, and a death rate of 16.7%.

During the same period, there was not a single new case or death in Hong Kong's neighboring province of Guangdong. Up to June 5, when the Ministry of Health stopped reporting on Guangdong, the cumulative totals were 1511 cases, 57 deaths, and a death rate of 3.8%.

Also during the same period, the cumulative total of confirmed cases in China as a whole not only stopped increasing, but actually declined, because some cases were removed. Up to June 13, China had reported 5327 cases and 343 deaths, including the newly added 15 deaths. The "confirmed cases" in China were three times as many as those in Hong Kong. However, the number of deaths in China is 4 fewer than in Hong Kong.

While the number of cases is slowly climbing in Hong Kong, all of the main epidemic areas in China have suddenly stopped adding any new cases, showing a level line on the cumulative cases graph!

Now let's look at Beijing. Within the same two-week period, the number of probable cases decreased by 716. Only 5 probable cases were confirmed to be SARS, a 0.7% confirmation rate. The number of probable SARS cases drastically declined from 713 reported on June 6 to 71 reported on the 13th, a decrease of 646, with only 1 confirmed case reported, which is 0.15%!!

Early data showed that 100% of the probable SARS were confirmed SARS, while between May 10th and 30th the confirmed rate fell to 23%. This latest statistic of 0.15% has made a heaven and earth difference!

Could this "miracle" simply be the result of reporting an epidemic "according to orders?"

The "probable" SARS cases would count as confirmed SARS in Hong Kong.

The "miracle" in China truly stands out compared with other epidemic areas in the world. The "miracle" in Guangdong Province is the most amazing of all!

Below is the data in each major epidemic region in the world up to June 13

*Canada data is up to June 12.

Data in each major epidemic region within China up to June 13

*Guangdong and Tianjin stopped issuing data after June 5th, indicating the numbers "remained the same."

Information on the numbers released by the Health Ministry on June 9th and 10th revealed the "mystery" of China's low death rate from SARS: "not including 7 deaths from other diseases of those patients diagnosed as SARS." In other words, any SARS patients that died of "other diseases" would not count as SARS deaths!

Since May 9, the rate of probable SARS patients ultimately confirmed as SARS cases has dropped. Guangdong Province and Tianjin City have also reported fewer probable and no confirmed SARS. This is very unusual. Comparing the numbers between May 2nd and 9th with the numbers after May 9 reveals an obvious aberration. (We cannot compare with the number before May 2, since there is no data on probable patients.)

See graph below:

"Confirmed SARS Cases" Versus "Probable SARS Cases"

*Guangdong and Tianjin data from June 5^th, with Probable SARS still 14 in Guangdong and 73 in Tianjin.

Up till June 13, the total probable SARS in Beijing was 71, 8 in Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Shanxi both reported 0, the whole country only 120.

Following such a trend, we can "estimate" that, from now on, the chance of any probable SARS becoming a confirmed case of SARS is very slim.

The SARS data in China has fully displayed the "advantages" of its system. The epidemic will stop whenever "the powers that be" decide it should stop; the disease would not even exist if those powers so decree, nor would patients' deaths be counted if it were not convenient.
Chinese version available at http://www.minghui.ca/mh/articles/2003/6/16/52345.html

 Yearly Archive   Printer Version